Dr. John Liu
Senior Science Advisor, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks
Adjunct Professor, York University, Xiamen University of Technology
John got his Ph.D. from the University of
Toronto in Canada. With more than 30 years of modelling experience on
meteorology, climate and air quality at various scales from meters to the entire
globe, as the Senior Science Advisor on Climate Change in the Ontario
Government, John has been managing more than 50 projects to (1) improve future
climate projections at higher resolution (down to 10km); (2) assess impacts of
climate change on various sectors, including infrastructure (energy,
transportation, and water), agriculture, and carbon cycle in the Far North and
other ecosystems; and (3) develop climate change pertaining policies. He is the
scientist in the Ontario Government who has carried out the most extensive
research on refining regional climate information and assessing climate change
impacts in Ontario, via numerical modelling and statistical analyses.
Dr. Liu has more than 100+ journal publications, book chapters, reports and invited speeches based on his research findings, including publications on first tier journals such as Nature and the Journal of Climate; he has also been a reviewer of many international journals, an Editorial Board Member for the Journal of Environmental Systems Research, International Society for Environmental Information Sciences.
In addition to his edge-cutting research activities, John has served as an Adjunct Professor at multiple universities since 2005, and has supervised and mentored many Ph.D., M.Sc. graduate students and summer students on climate and air quality modelling.
John has been a member of a number of professional organizations such as the American Meteorological Society (AMS), the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS), and the Air and Waste Management Association (AWMA). He is currently the elected Chair of the Ontario Climate Advisory Committee (OCAC), and a member of the Scientific Panel on Climate Modelling for the Lake Simcoe Climate Change Adaptation Plan, the Scientific Advisory Committee for the Drinking Water Source Protection in Ontario and the Scientific Panel on Climate Modelling for the Ontario Public Health Convention.
Speech Title-Projected Climate Change over the Canadian Great Lakes Basins Based on a State-of-the-Science Combined Downscaling Methodology
Abstract-In this study, the IPCC-endorsed multiple model/scenario approach and a state-of-the-science combined downscaling methodology were applied to project the future climate changes over Ontario and the Canadian Great Lakes basins under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios defined in the IPCC’s AR5. Across the province, significant warming is expected under all RCPs. Relative to 1986-2005 averages, the highest temperature rise is projected to occur in Ontario’s Far North, 7.3°C warmer by the 2080s. The temperature over the Great Lakes Basin is projected to increase by 1.3 ~ 5.7°C. Ontario’s annual total precipitation is projected to increase 86.9 mm (11%) under RCP 8.5 by the 2080s, while summer precipitation is projected to decrease 32.9 mm (12%) and winter precipitation is projected to increase 52.4 mm (48%). In the Great Lakes Basin, the greatest increase in annual average temperature is projected to occur in the Lake Superior sub-basin by the 2080s, ranging from 1.7 to 5.3°C. Winter warming is projected to exceed summer warming in all sub-basins. Annual total precipitation is projected to increase in all five sub-basins, with the largest increase projected to occur in the Lake Superior sub-basin. Summer is projected to be drier while winter is projected to be wetter across the entire Great Lakes Basin; and the greatest increase in winter precipitation is projected to occur in the Ottawa River sub-basin. These projected changes could have implications on future water levels in the Great Lakes and many aspects across the entire Great Lakes Basin.